Tranziția fertilității în secolul 21: tendințe globale, perspective asiatice și provocări demografice emergente în Sri Lanka

Introduction

Fertility transition has become one of the defining demographic transformations of the twenty-first century. Across the world, declining birth rates, delayed family formation, population ageing, urbanization and changing family structures are reshaping societies, economies and health systems. According to the World Population Prospects 2024 report, the global total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 3.31 births per woman in 1990 to 2.25 births per woman in 2024, indicating that women today bear, on average, one fewer child than they did three decades ago⁽⁹⁾. Similarly, the OECD reported that global fertility declined from nearly five children per woman in 1950 to just above two children per woman by 2021⁽⁵⁾.

Fertility decline is increasingly recognized not only as a demographic phenomenon but also as a major economic, social and public health concern. Sustained low fertility contributes to shrinking labor forces, rising dependency ratios, accelerated population ageing and increasing pressure on pension and health systems^(5,9). At the same time, declining fertility reflects broader social progress associated with female education, reproductive autonomy, improved healthcare access and socioeconomic modernization.

Asia has emerged as one of the regions most profoundly affected by fertility transition. East Asian countries such as South Korea, Japan, China and Singapore now experience some of the world’s lowest fertility rates, while South Asian countries are rapidly approaching below-replacement fertility levels^(5,6). Within this regional context, Sri Lanka represents a particularly important demographic case. Historically recognized for strong maternal and child health indicators and an early demographic transition, Sri Lanka is now confronting declining fertility, rapid population ageing and the possibility of entering an ultra-low fertility regime⁽³⁾.

This article critically examines fertility trends from global, Asian and Sri Lankan perspectives, with particular emphasis on demographic transitions, socioeconomic determinants, reproductive health factors and future policy implications.

Global fertility transition and demographic change

The world is currently experiencing a profound demographic transition characterized by declining fertility, increasing life expectancy and population ageing. According to the United Nations (2024), more than half of all countries worldwide now report fertility levels below the replacement threshold of 2.1 births per woman, while several countries in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia and Europe have reached ultra-low fertility levels below 1.4 births per woman⁽⁹⁾.

The consequences of this transition are substantial. The United Nations projects that the global population will continue growing until the mid-2080s, reaching approximately 10.3 billion people before beginning a gradual decline⁽⁹⁾. The organization further estimates an 80% probability that the global population will peak within the current century, largely due to sustained fertility decline, particularly in populous countries such as China.

Multiple interconnected social and economic factors have contributed to fertility decline globally. Urbanization, increased female educational attainment, improved access to contraception, women’s labor force participation and changing attitudes toward parenthood have significantly influenced reproductive behavior and family size preferences⁽⁵⁾. Economic pressures, rising housing costs, employment insecurity and work-family imbalance further discourage childbearing in many societies⁽⁹⁾.

Nevertheless, fertility decline is not evenly distributed worldwide. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the region with the highest fertility levels globally, averaging approximately 4.275 births per woman⁽¹¹⁾. Countries such as Chad and Somalia continue to record fertility rates approaching six births per woman due to early marriage, poverty, lower contraceptive use and limited access to reproductive healthcare services⁽⁶⁾. In contrast, many industrialized and East Asian countries are now confronting demographic ageing and population decline.

The public health dimensions of fertility are equally important. In 2024, approximately 4.7 million babies were born to mothers younger than 18 years, including around 340,000 births among girls younger than 15 years old⁽⁹⁾. Early childbearing is associated with increased maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality risks, interrupted education and reduced economic opportunities for women. Consequently, investments in female education, reproductive healthcare and delayed family formation are increasingly recognized as central strategies for achieving sustainable demographic outcomes⁽⁹⁾.

Another major concept associated with fertility transition is the demographic dividend. Countries undergoing fertility decline may temporarily benefit from a relatively large working-age population compared with dependent age groups. However, this demographic advantage is time-limited and requires substantial investment in education, healthcare, governance and employment generation to produce sustainable economic growth⁽⁹⁾.

Fertility transition in Asia

Asia has become one of the most demographically dynamic regions in the world, displaying both ultra-low fertility and continuing high fertility depending on the country and stage of demographic transition. According to Harper and Zhang (2024), the average fertility rate across the Asia-Pacific region had fallen close to replacement level by 2022, although considerable regional variation remains⁽⁵⁾.

East Asian countries currently exhibit some of the world’s lowest fertility rates. South Korea’s total fertility rate (TFR) declined from approximately 1.205 births per woman in 2008 to only 0.682 in 2024, representing one of the lowest fertility levels globally⁽³⁾. Similarly, fertility rates in China (1.02), Hong Kong (0.74), Japan (1.23), Thailand (1.19) and Singapore remain critically low⁽⁶⁾. These declines have been linked to delayed family formation, high educational competition, expensive housing, demanding work cultures, urbanization and persistent gender inequalities in domestic responsibilities⁽⁵⁾.

Harper and Zhang (2024) further emphasize that fertility decline in Asia is closely associated with increased female educational attainment and labor force participation. As women pursue higher education and career advancement, the opportunity costs associated with childbearing increase substantially. Fertility rates tend to remain relatively higher in societies that provide affordable childcare, paid parental leave, flexible working arrangements and supportive workplace cultures⁽⁵⁾.

Research by Aassve et al. (2024) provides important insight into changing family ideals in low-fertility societies. Although parenthood remains highly valued across cultures, family size is no longer central to perceptions of the “ideal family.” Instead, emotional well-being, strong interpersonal relationships, work-life balance and financial stability are increasingly prioritized. These trends reflect broader social transformations associated with modernization and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) theory⁽¹⁾.

Delayed childbearing has also emerged as a major regional trend. Across many Asian societies, women increasingly postpone marriage and childbirth because of prolonged education, career aspirations, economic uncertainty and changing reproductive preferences⁽⁵⁾. In East Asia, declining marriage rates contribute substantially to low fertility because childbirth outside marriage remains relatively uncommon.

Beyond socioeconomic determinants, reproductive and women’s health factors are becoming increasingly important contributors to fertility decline. Yang et al. (2025) emphasize that female fertility is influenced by a complex interaction of lifestyle, environmental, metabolic, and psychosocial factors. Obesity, stress, sleep disorders, environmental pollution, insulin resistance and reproductive disorders such as polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) and endometriosis significantly impair fertility and reproductive outcomes⁽¹⁰⁾.

Environmental pollution is increasingly recognized as a major reproductive health concern across Asia. Exposure to air pollution, pesticides, heavy metals, endocrine-disrupting chemicals and microplastics may negatively affect ovarian function, embryo implantation and pregnancy outcomes⁽¹⁰⁾. Rapid industrialization in many Asian countries has intensified these risks, particularly in settings where environmental regulations remain inadequate.

South Asia is also experiencing rapid fertility decline. India’s fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level, to approximately 1.94 births per woman, while Nepal and the Maldives have similarly experienced substantial fertility reductions^(6,7). These patterns indicate that fertility transition is no longer confined to high-income countries, but it has become increasingly widespread throughout Asia.

Sri Lanka’s fertility transition

Sri Lanka represents one of the most advanced examples of demographic transition in South Asia. Fertility decline in Sri Lanka began earlier than in many neighboring countries and has continued over several decades. According to the Sri Lanka Demographic and Health Survey 2016, the country’s TFR declined from approximately 5 births per woman in 1963 to 3.4 in 1975 and further declined below replacement level to 1.9 by 2000 (Sri Lanka Department of Census and Statistics, 2017)⁽⁸⁾. By 2016, the TFR was estimated at 2.2 births per woman.

Compared with neighboring South Asian countries, Sri Lanka has historically maintained relatively low fertility levels. The country’s TFR of 2.2 in 2016 was lower than Pakistan (3.8), Cambodia (2.7), India (2.7), Nepal (2.6), Bangladesh (2.3) and Myanmar (2.3)⁽⁸⁾. This reflects Sri Lanka’s comparatively advanced demographic transition associated with high literacy, improved maternal healthcare, female education and widespread utilization of family planning services.

Recent evidence, however, suggests that Sri Lanka may now be approaching ultra-low fertility. De Silva and De Silva (2025) estimated Sri Lanka’s TFR at 1.497 in 2023 and 1.340 in 2024 using an alternative fertility estimation method validated against South Korean fertility data⁽³⁾. Similarly, Munasinghaghe et al. (2025) reported that Sri Lanka’s fertility rate may have declined to approximately 1.3 births per woman, placing the country within the category of ultra-low fertility⁽⁷⁾.

Recent fertility decline in Sri Lanka has been strongly associated with delayed family formation. According to the Sri Lanka Department of Census and Statistics (2017), the median age at first birth reached approximately 26 years old, particularly among urban, educated and wealthier women. Increased female educational attainment and labor force participation have significantly influenced reproductive behavior and family size preferences.

Socioeconomic instability has also contributed to recent fertility decline. Following Sri Lanka’s severe economic crisis in 2022, the country experienced inflation, rising living costs, wage stagnation, employment insecurity and increased migration among reproductive-age adults⁽⁷⁾. Births reportedly declined from approximately 301,706 in 2022 to 220,761 in 2024⁽³⁾. Economic uncertainty appears to have encouraged many couples to postpone marriage and childbearing decisions.

Munasinghaghe et al. (2025) applied Ajzen’s theory of planned behavior to explain these fertility changes. According to the theory, fertility intentions are shaped by attitudes toward parenthood, social norms and perceived behavioral control. Even as Sri Lanka’s economy shows signs of stabilization, many young couples continue to perceive parenthood as financially risky because of housing costs, unstable employment, migration pressures and limited family-friendly workplace policies⁽⁷⁾.

However, recent interpretations of Sri Lanka’s fertility data have generated academic debate. Dyson and Murphy (2023) argued that the reported TFR of 1.3 from the 2024 Census may overstate the extent of fertility decline because census-based fertility estimates can underestimate recent births due to methodological limitations. According to this interpretation, Sri Lanka’s recent fertility decline may primarily reflect delayed family formation rather than a complete collapse of family size preferences⁽⁴⁾.

Dyson and Murphy (2023) further noted that fertility decline of such magnitude over a short period would be exceptionally rare internationally. Marriage in Sri Lanka remains nearly universal by women’s early thirties, and fertility among married women reportedly remains around two to three children over their reproductive years. These findings suggest that family formation patterns remain relatively stable despite temporary delays in childbearing⁽⁴⁾.

The distinction between delayed fertility and permanent fertility decline has major policy implications. If fertility has merely been postponed because of temporary economic disruption, fertility rates may partially recover in future years. However, if Sri Lanka is truly entering a sustained ultra-low fertility regime, the country may soon face severe demographic ageing, workforce contraction and increasing pressure on health and pension systems similar to those observed in East Asian countries.

Public health and socioeconomic implications

Sri Lanka’s demographic transition has important implications for health systems, labor markets and long-term economic sustainability. The country’s life expectancy increased to 77.5 years old in 2023, while fertility declined below the replacement level⁽²⁾. Consequently, population ageing is accelerating rapidly.

According to De Silva and De Silva (2025), nearly one-fourth of Sri Lanka’s population may be aged 60 years old and above by 2042⁽³⁾. Population ageing increases healthcare expenditure, pension burdens and dependency ratios while reducing the size of the economically productive workforce.

Migration trends further intensify demographic pressures. Sri Lanka recorded a net migration rate of -28,010 people in 2023, indicating substantial outmigration of younger and economically productive populations⁽²⁾. Continued emigration may accelerate workforce depletion and population decline.

At the same time, Sri Lanka’s demographic transition reflects important public health achievements. Reduced child mortality, improved maternal healthcare, higher literacy rates and increased reproductive autonomy have all contributed to declining fertility and increased longevity⁽²⁾. These achievements position Sri Lanka as a demographic success story within South Asia.

Policy responses therefore require balance rather than alarm-driven pronatalist strategies. As Dyson and Murphy (2023) argues, policy priorities should focus on adapting to demographic transition rather than reacting prematurely to potentially exaggerated fertility estimates. Strengthening pension systems, improving elderly care, promoting female labor force participation, supporting young families and improving demographic data quality are likely to be more effective than aggressive fertility-promotion policies⁽⁴⁾.

International evidence suggests that fertility stabilization is more likely in societies that support work-life balance, gender equality, childcare access, affordable housing and employment security^(1,5). Fertility decline cannot be addressed solely through financial incentives without broader structural reforms.

Conclusions

Fertility transition has become one of the most significant demographic transformations of the modern era. Across the world, declining fertility, delayed childbearing, increasing longevity and changing family structures are reshaping population dynamics and generating new economic and public health challenges.

Asia has emerged as the epicenter of global fertility decline, with several East Asian countries already experiencing ultra-low fertility and rapid demographic ageing. South Asia, including Sri Lanka, is now following a similar demographic trajectory.

Sri Lanka’s fertility transition reflects both demographic progress and emerging socioeconomic challenges. Improvements in female education, reproductive healthcare and socioeconomic development have contributed to declining fertility and improved health outcomes. However, recent evidence suggests that the country may be approaching ultra-low fertility levels, raising concerns regarding population ageing, workforce decline and long-term economic sustainability.

Nevertheless, current fertility estimates remain subject to ongoing academic debate. Some evidence suggests that delayed family formation during periods of economic crisis may partly explain the recent sharp decline in fertility. Therefore, careful interpretation of demographic data is essential before concluding that Sri Lanka is facing an irreversible fertility crisis.

Ultimately, Sri Lanka’s demographic future will depend not only on fertility levels but also on broader social, economic and policy responses. Sustainable demographic development requires integrated approaches that support reproductive health, gender equality, economic security, elderly care and evidence-based population planning. Sri Lanka’s experience offers important lessons for understanding fertility transition across Asia and the wider developing world.

Corresponding author: Faiz M.M.T. Marikar E-mail: faiz@kdu.ac.lk

Conflict of interests: none declared.

Financial support: none declared.

This work is permanently accessible online free of charge and published under the CC-BY.